The 2023 threats to the world economy and politics 302t8

The threats of 2023 are fueled by the covid-19 pandemic and the ukrainian war, the world suffered a series of human and economic casualties that affected the functioning of society across the planet, from increased hunger to nuclear disagreements. 3r65z

With the economy contracted, many poor and developing countries suffer from poverty, extreme droughts and the edge of richer countries with better conditions to overcome adversity. As an example, the rise in world energy prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ucrania, with the increase in values ​​and the lower availability of resource generation, underdeveloped nations do not reach high investments to maintain themselves as before the conflict.

Are the threats of 2023 alarming? x3v4e

In an interview for the channel Big Think, Ian Bremmer, founder of the group E, scored several possible threats according to the risk analysis carried out by the company for that year. The businessman stated that China, Russia and Iran are the nations that most concern him in nuclear and economic matters.

Ian mentions the rise of radicalism in Vladimir Putin, Russian president because of the invasion in Ucrania and repression of anti-war acts, Xi Jinping, president of China, for the concentration of power in his mandate, closing the siege to opponents and Ebrahim raisi, Iranian president, for religious extremism against women and tensions with Israel.

In addition, he mentions water and energy as amplifying global inequality due to the scarcity of resources, the first due to low availability and little global concern, and energy due to the world increase in prices. Check out the interview with Ian:

O showmetech made a list of the main threats for this year so you can stay on top of the biggest problems we could face:

Economic recession 1z2m3a

The founder of E reports that until a few years ago the economy was growing and favoring the “working middle class”, but the new reality is creating informal jobs, increasing sex tourism with a focus on the exploitation of women and children.

bremmer brings a data from United Nations which reports that 5 years of world population development was lost between 2020 and 2022. World Food Programe(WFP) states that hunger and food insecurity affects 349 million people in 70 countries, an increase of more than 200 million before the pandemic.

The WFP points out as reasons the increase in fertilizers, due to the low production of natural gas in Russia, which could generate a domino effect that will affect rice, wheat, soy and corn farms around the world, in addition to regional conflicts that make it impossible to supply food for cities and natural disasters that destroy crops are reasons for this postponement of hunger as a threat to 2023, with no forecast of improvement, as indicated by the WFP.

High unemployment and disruption of food and input logistics caused a rise in global inflation with people not having purchasing power or what to buy, Ian mentions that countries made high fiscal spending on social programs to keep the population alive during the Covid-19 stoppage and all that, in the global economy, generated a slowdown in growth from 6% in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and less than 2% is expected for this year, the increase expands inequalities and the crisis of capitalism and if becomes an obstacle not only for 2023, but for many years to come.

Among the reasons, we can mention the War of Ucrania, which drives the increase in energy with the non-presence of Russia in the global resource generation market, the rise in oil required by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls most of the production on the planet and global warming causing rising sea levels, increasing the number of hurricanes and floods.

global droughts i6cg

The lack of water is one of society's biggest concerns, but it has not been a priority for global investment, sub-Saharan and desert countries are increasingly in need of internal resources to obtain water for hydration and irrigation, a study published in the journal Nature Sustainability states that 90% of the population will be affected by extreme heat or drought.

Ao Nature, the author of the research Jiabo Yin commented that the South America, India, China and the horn and the south of Africa will be the most affected, the report mentions that the greenhouse effect generated by gas emissions is the main cause of these effects.

Africa is currently experiencing the worst drought in 40 years and this is expected to continue into 2023. Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia are the hardest hit countries, with 20 million people in a situation of thirst and hunger.

Ian Bremmer talks in his interview that in addition to places with little water, regions like Florida, and here in Brazil as the most coastal and connected to lakes and rivers, are affected by floods, which cause destruction and homelessness of populations. The situation is also critical for farmers and ranchers, changes in temperature and instability in water supply are cruel challenges for food production.

He also reports on the UN Conference on water, which has been ignored by the sector of society capable of solving these problems, and that only now is this becoming a priority agenda.

conflicting geopolitics s39a

World geopolitics tends to be even more heated in 2023, with the dispute between Russia e Ucrania far from finished and the allies continue to send weapons and vehicles to the invaded country, the China having to readjust due to its post-covid 19 downturn and Iran straining with the United States e Israel due to its human rights violations and incitements to nuclear weapons.

However, it is not only these countries that suffer from popular uprisings, in his speech Ian mentions the attacks in Brasília, on 08/01, and that of the United States Capitol, on January 6, 2021, but in addition, the advance of the extreme right, responsible for the two events mentioned, together with general dissatisfaction against governments or dictatorships can generate a mass of violent acts in the around the world, despite already occurring in 2021 and driven by covid-19 and the recession, could gain strength.

Iran 271x42

The Iranian republic is experiencing a series of popular protests after the death of the young woman Jina Mahsa Amini, for not wearing her headscarf correctly when arrested by the “morality police” in December. Tensions with the West have been growing after recent tensions with the international community calling for justice and an end to religious extremism against women in the country, in addition, there is no openness for diplomacy and resolution of the situation.

The country is still in a delicate negotiation phase with the North Americans and Israel, for the release of alleged American prisoners in the Persian country, this situation led to the withdrawal of the mutual nuclear agreement, with the Jews promising actions if they did not hand over the alleged hostages. For 2023, the expectation is for an increase in tensions and more civil conflicts in the Iran, but there should be no international clashes.

Russia vs Ukraine 96k6d

The war between the two European nations is close to completing a year of initiation and shows two sides in delicate situations beyond the war. THE Russia as the cause of the confrontation is sanctioned and excluded from the world stage, despite receiving help from Iran e Belarus in the conflict. Internally, as in the Persian country, he experiences anti-war protests and insurrections and faces them with violence, to the point of prohibiting mentions of words like “invasion” and “war” being punished as treason by legislation.

Russian production of gas and energy, denied by European countries during the war, is one of the pillars of the economic crisis in 2023, causing historic highs not only in energy and fuel, but could increase food and more futile objects due to the increase in inputs and transport.

Ukraine is in the midst of a wave of corruption, President Volodymir Zelensky has fired or received the resignation of high-ranking personalities in his government. The first was Vasyl Lozynskyy, minister of regional development, arrested by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau for allegedly receiving US$400 to facilitate obtaining contracts for sensitive equipment such as power generators. Another fall was Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy chief of staff, who left office after being identified as a possible irregular of public cars.

Zelensky suffers from the falls and does not seem close to resolution, Ukrainian wheat operates in decline and harms the world supply of the crop, for this winter, production should fall to 15 million tons, against 32 million last year, the country has already been the largest producer in the pre-war world.

China and Xi Jinping 106a2m

Ian Bremmer calls Chinese President Xi Jinping "China's undisputed leader", claims that Xi has thrown off limits and that he is protected within the Communist party. The fact is that Jinping opened the country and ended the zero covid policy, which was implemented from the beginning of the pandemic until November 2022, this decision culminated in record cases of the disease in the country. Despite that China will lower the emergency level and remove the need for quarantine to enter the country.

China has suffered from the real estate market and the country's shutdown, slowing down the economy and creating challenges for what's to come in 2023, the quest to keep allies and the West close, but also putting Chinese industries back at the top of the market, Xi could shake the world economy.

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Sources: Big Think, Indian Express, DW, WFP, CNN