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Many people are wondering how and when the pandemic will end. The fact is that in different regions of Brazil and the world the pandemic is nearing its end, but that does not mean that a cure for the disease has been found or that it is safe to resume life as before. 6t5o2l
The pandemic of COVID-19 it is ending socially, but not medically. According to experts and historians, there are two distinct ways a pandemic can end: in a medical sense and in a social sense.
the end of pandemic in the medicinal sense it happens when the epidemic curve is flattened. That is, when the number of infected and deaths is reduced. A pandemic can also come to an end when a cure for the disease is found and everyone is immunized. Or also if the disease is eradicated.
The social end occurs when people lose their fear of the pandemic. The social end can already be observed in several regions of Brazil and the world. Although the number of cases continues to rise, people have lost their fear of COVID-19 and are going back to living their lives as if the pandemic is over. It is already common to see people without a mask and in agglomerations. But taking into epidemiological issues, the pandemic is not over yet.
After all, will the pandemic end this year? 6i462i
From a medical point of view, the pandemic will end when a 100% safe and effective vaccine against the virus appears or if the virus is eradicated. The government of São Paulo signed a partnership between the Butantan Institute and the lab A nephew for the development of a vaccine against the coronavirus.
The clinical trials of Corona Vac should be closed in December, and if all goes well, the vaccine should be applied to specific groups, such as health professionals, later this year. And the immunization of the population should start in 2021.
In addition to Brazil, CoronaVac is also being tested in Southeast Asia and in some regions of Latin America. Clinical studies are in the last phase and are monitored by 12 research centers. Recently Dimas Covas, director of the Butantan Institute, revealed that CoronaVac is one of the most promising vaccines in the world.
The pharmaceutical industry around the world is also racing against time to find an effective solution against the virus. In the United States, the pharmaceutical Modern is with advanced research and the experimental vaccine has shown positive results.
The company's proposal was to request authorization for the distribution of the vaccine before the US presidential elections, which take place in November. But Moderna said there will be no vaccination before December.
What happens after vaccination? 2w67s
According to epidemiologist Emily Landon, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases at University of Chicago, vaccination does not release the population to resume life as before, which as Bill Gates must change forever. Immunization does not happen overnight and it takes a little patience until the entire population is immunized.
“After people have had both doses of the vaccine, you have to wait to see if the disease and death counts go down. It can take up to two months for people to develop immunity. Rates should begin to decline between four and six weeks after immunization.”
Emily Landon, head of the Department of Infectious Diseases at University of Chicago.
Therefore, it is necessary to continue maintaining social distance and prevention measures. Even if the population begins to be vaccinated in 2021, control of the pandemic will depend on two factors: the percentage of people immunized and the effectiveness of vaccines. As the virus spreads easily through physical , it will be necessary to wait until most of the population is properly immunized before considering ending the use of masks and social distancing.
According to Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, if the vaccine is 75% effective against the virus, it is necessary to wait until two thirds of the population is immunized to guarantee collective immunity.
Furthermore, the process of vaccinating and distributing vaccines is not as simple as it seems. In the case of the coronavirus, people will likely need to take two doses with a time interval of up to a month. There will need to be strict control of who has and has not been vaccinated. Zeke Emanuel, Chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at University of Pennsylvania, points out major gaps in the vaccine configuration in the United States, including potential shortages of production capacity, syringes, and packaging.
What to expect for the future? w274n
People must still live with the coronavirus for a while. For virologist Angela Rasmussen, the process for ending the pandemic may still take a while, maybe a few years. According to Rasmussen people need to understand that the vaccine is not able to eradicate the virus. It is worth ing that only two viruses have been officially eradicated: smallpox and rinderpest.
Many experts believe there will continue to be deaths from COVID-19, as with the flu every year, but rates will decline after vaccination. Maybe some rules how to use mask, become mandatory in winter, as this is the time of year when the virus spreads most easily. It is necessary to keep in mind that, although people are living as if everything is already normalized, “normal” life should not return anytime soon. There are still real risks and prevention measures must be continued.
Source: Politico; Government of São Paulo
