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Most of the most popular electronic devices are produced in China, which now has to face a tariff of up to 145%, determined by the government of Donald Trump. With this, the price of iPhone, one of the most widely used smartphones in the world, is expected to increase – regardless of whether production remains in Asia or Apple could transfer it to the domestic market, say market analysts. Understand, in this text, what is the tariff, how it should impact the price of devices Apple and how much the iPhone must start to cost. 1q3p6
What is the US “Tariff War”? 372wl
A Tariff War of the United States, nicknamed in Brazil as tariff, is a trade conflict that has shaken the economic relations of Trump government in these first months of the year. The strategy involves imposing high tariffs on imports from several countries, with the stated goal of protecting domestic industry, reducing the trade deficit and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
Since the beginning of the year, the United States has imposed significant tariffs on products such as steel, aluminum, electronics and even agricultural goods, especially affecting exporting nations such as India (26%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), South Korea (25%), Japan (24%) and Brazil (10%). In response, countries are retaliating with tariffs of their own, creating a domino effect that raises trade costs and threatens the stability of the global economy.
Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Trump istration has imposed successive layers of tariffs, culminating in a total cumulative tariff of 145% on goods from China and Hong Kong. On Friday, the 11th, China responded by again increasing tariffs on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%.
In Brazil, the term tariff gained traction in the press and among economists to describe the impact of these barriers, which make imports more expensive and put pressure on sectors dependent on foreign inputs, such as the technology industry, including Apple , which has countries such as India, Taiwan and China in its supply chain, where most of the iPhone production continues to be concentrated.
Why might tariffs impact the price of the iPhone? 702u4p
A Apple relies heavily on China for the assembly of their products. According to Counterpoint Research, up to 80% of iPhones destined for the American market are manufactured there. If import tariffs are applied to these devices when they enter the US, the Apple will face a large increase in its production costs.
Analysts say the company has a few options: absorb these costs, which could impact its profit margins (although analysts like Forrester's Dipanjan Chatterjee note that the company's margins Apple are quite “profitable”), or the increase on to consumers. Given the strong brand loyalty, some analysts believe that Apple could raise prices without a stampede of customers to competitors who use the Androidas the Samsung, Motorola, Xiaomi and others.
Although the company has been trying to diversify its production, moving part of it to countries like India and Vietnam, and has even chartered flights to take iPhones from India to the US (about 600 tons) in recent days, analysts such as dan ives, Wedbush Securities, warn that this process of moving much of the supply chain out of Asia (especially to the US) would take years and cost billions of dollars (he estimates 3 years and US$30 billion to move just 10%), which, in the short term, does not solve the price issue.
Price forecasts for Brazil and the USA 6y5p3i
Many analysts are talking about increases of “hundreds of dollars”.
- The investment firm UBS calculated that with a 125% tariff on Chinese goods, the iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB, made in China) could jump from $1.199 to $1.999.
- Models made in India, such as the iPhone 16 Pro (128GB), would see a smaller increase, estimated by UBS at 5% (from $999 to $1.046), if tariffs on India remain suspended.
- dan ives, Wedbush Securities, suggests that an iPhone manufactured by the company on US soil could cost up to US$3.500.
- Mark Gurman, from Bloomberg, says the value could actually exceed $1.000, but that estimates like Dan Ives' are absurd and that Apple should combine actions to cushion the final value.
- As for the future, analysts at Rosenblatt Securities (via Reuters) estimate that prices for the iPhone 17 lineup could start at $1.799 (iPhone 17) to $2.300 (iPhone 17 Pro Max).
It is worth ing that Brazil also has an iPhone assembly line by Taiwanese company Foxconn, in Jundiaí (SP). With the tariff war, speculation considered Brazil – one of the least affected by Trump's tariffs in this sense – as a possible place for investments in the manufacture of the device by Apple . However, the automaker reported (via G1) that iPhones made in Brazil are specifically intended for the domestic market.
But what about the price of iPhone in Brazil? The impact may be indirect, but real. Ben Wood of CCS Insight told the BBC that it is unlikely that Apple would want to have very different prices globally, as this could encourage people to buy devices in cheaper markets for resale in the US. So if prices go up in the US, it is plausible that Apple increase prices globally to maintain parity, affecting Brazilians' pockets.
Here, as always, the scenario is aggravated by local factors that make the iPhone in the country to be among the most expensive in the world. The local assembly of some models, such as the iPhone 15, aims to reduce part of these Brazilian taxes, but the final price remains significantly higher than that practiced in the USA.
Analyzing the values of the American and Brazilian markets in recent years, it is possible to get an idea of what value could be practiced here.
iPhone 14: The base model (128GB) started at $799 in the US, with the price later adjusted downwards ($599/$629) upon subsequent releases. In Brazil, the launch was at R$7.599, equivalent to around $1.520 at the time, again substantially higher than the US price.
iPhone 15: Launched in the US with prices starting at $699 or $799 (depending on carrier activation or unlocked model) for the 128GB version. In Brazil, the official launch price for the same model was R$7.299, a value confirmed as being almost double the US price – read our review.
iPhone 16: The base model (128GB) was launched in the US for US$799, while in Brazil, the official starting price was R$7.799. The iPhone 16 Pro (128GB) started at US$999 in the US and R$10.499 in Brazil – read our review.
It is noted that the official launch price in Brazil is, on average, 80% to 100% more expensive than in the US, after currency conversion. With a consensus among analysts on a price increase of between 20% and 40%, the line iPhone 17 could arrive in Brazil with values between R$9.000 (iPhone 17) and almost R$17.000 (Pro Max) – the calculations considered an exchange rate between R$5,25 and R$5,90 for US$1.
A Apple The company has not said how it will respond to the tariffs if they are fully implemented, but the move to move units from India could indicate that the company is trying to buy time before ing on any price increases. Consumers, meanwhile, are already showing concern, with some pre-ordering devices in New York, according to the BBC.
Do you think Brazil will be greatly affected by the increase in the price of iPhone by US tariffs? Tell us in the comments.
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Text revised by Alexandre Marques in 11 / 04 / 2025.
Sources: Reuters, with the BBC, CNN, APNews, AppleInsider, MacRumors
