The 2m2k3r
14 makore apfuura, iyo documentary Chokwadi Chisingafadzi yakatangwa, ichiperekedza Al Gore - aimbove mumiriri weUS - munhevedzano yezvidzidzo zvine chinangwa chekuzivisa nezve njodzi kudziya kwepasirese, nyaya yanga yatovepo yambiro nenyanzvi kubvira kuma50. Zvino muna 2020, gore iro takava nemaguta achirekodha kupisa kwavo kwakanyanya (kana kutonhora zvakanyanya) munhoroondo, gakava pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kukosha kwekutora matanho akasimba, kunyanya nemakambani makuru, kwakakosha kupfuura nakare kose. . 3w3j1e
Muna 1947, komiti yevatungamiriri ve Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists kubva kuYunivhesiti yeChicago, yakagadzirwa, uye inochengetedza kusvika nhasi, iyo Doomsday Clock (Judgment Clock, muchiPutukezi), wachi yekufananidzira inoshandisa fananidzo umo vanhu vari “maminitsi kusvika pakati pehusiku”. Zvinhu zvikuru zvinopesvedzera the Doomsday Clock injodzi dzenyukireya uye kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze. Kutanga kwegore rino, wachi yakanga yafambiswa mberi 100 seconds kusvika pakati pehusiku (1 miniti nemasekonzi makumi mana), iyo inonyanya kukosha yenzvimbo ye ngwavaira yenyika yose inoitwa nomunhu kubva pakusikwa kwayo.
Nei taona kuwedzera kwemamiriro ekunze akaipisisa? 4t4r25
Sekureva kwaPaul Nobre, muongorori weNational Institute for Space Research (INPE), nepo mamiriro ekunze akanyanya kuitika nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana, kuwedzera kunoonekwa mukusimba uye kuwanda kwezviitiko izvi - sekupisa kwakanyanya uye mafungu echando - zvakanyanya. zvakanangana ne kuwedzera kwekushisa kwepasi rose zvepasi uye kubviswa kwemasango anogara achinaya mvura.
“Masango anogara achinaya mvura, kufanana neAmazon, anobatsira kuti mamiriro okunze emunzvimbomo neepasi pose adzikame. Kubviswa kwemasango kunounza kuwedzera kweiyo hydrological cycle, nekusanaya kwemvura kwenguva refu kwete muAmazon chete, asiwo mune mamwe matunhu eBrazil, zvichikonzera kuti mafungu ekupisa anzwike zvakanyanya.
Paulo Nobre, muongorori paINPE (National Institute for Space Research)
Zvakadaro, kuna José Carlos Figueiredo, nyanzvi yezvemamiriro ekunze kuBauru Meteorology Center (IPMet - UNESP), zvakaoma kutaura nezve kudziya kwepasi muBrazil nekuda kwekusagadzikana uye kusaenderana kweiyo data yekuunganidza network munyika.Kune nyanzvi, meteorology It haisati yaonekwa pano nekukosha kwakafanana kunoonekwa nenyika dzakaita seUSA neUnited Kingdom, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekushaikwa kwemari yekutsvaga.
Zvizhinji zvezviitiko zvemeteorological zvatinobatanidza nemamiriro ekunze ezuva nezuva (kutonhora, kupisa, kunyorova, kuoma, pakati pezvimwe) zvinoitika mutroposphere. Mupfungwa iyi, anotsanangura Figueiredo, kutenderedza kwacho kwakajairika uye chikamu chechaotic system yemagasi anoumba mhepo yePasi. Naizvozvo, magirafu ane zvakanyanyisa akajairwa, nekuti nekuvapo kwemwaranzi yezuva (iyo isina kugovaniswa zvakafanana) uye shanduko yekuyerera kwemhepo kubva husiku kuenda masikati, kwete tembiricha chete, asi zvese zvemamiriro ekunze zvinokanganiswa. .
Anete Fernandes, nyanzvi yezvemamiriro ekunze pa5th Meteorology District yeNational Institute of Meteorology (INMET/5ºDISME) anobvuma kuti zviitiko zvakanyanyisa hazvinei hazvo nekupisa kwepasi kana kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, asi anosimbisa kuti kuwedzera frequency zvezviitiko izvi zvinogona kuva a mhepo mhinduro kune shanduko dzazvino. Semuenzaniso, meteorologist inotaura nguva yekuoma muAmazon kuma1930, iyo yakadzokorora zvakare muna 2005 uye zvakare muna 2010, ichiwedzera kuderedza nguva yekudzoka, pamwe nekusanaya kwemvura muCentral-West neSoutheast. 2014, chimwe chinhu chakanga chisati chamboitika.
Mafungu ekupisa ane simba akanyorwa gore rino, kuwedzera kune gore-pa-gore kuwedzera kwekushisa kwemhepo, kuwedzera mvura vapor pressure deficit mumhepo, zvichikonzera kuderera kwehunyoro maererano nemhepo uye mhedzisiro kuoma kwezvinomera muvhu. Nenzira iyi, moto uyo gore rino wakatambudza kwete chete Pantanal neAmazon, asiwo kumadokero kweNorth America, unobatanidzwa nemamiriro ezvinhu aya. kuoma kwakanyanya kwemhepo uye zvinomera.
"Moto unoshanda nekudzikamisa zvipenyu zvemuno, uchigadzira huwandu hukuru hwemhepo yemuchadenga, iyo, pamusoro pezvinetso zvekufema zvinokonzereswa munzvimbo dzakavakidzana, inokanganisawo hydrological cycle, kuwedzera kusimba kwemadutu mumwaka wekunaya uye kudzvinyirira mvura munguva yakaoma"
Paulo Nobre, muongorori paINPE (National Institute for Space Research)
Kuchinja kwemaitiro echisikigo evhu kunokanganisa kuwanda kwemwaranzi yezuva inoratidzwa kumashure mumhepo yakasununguka, ichiwedzera kubatwa nepamusoro, izvo zvinotungamira kuwedzera kwekushisa kwemhepo. Uyezve, moto unowedzera huwandu hwe CO2 mumhepo, kuwedzera greenhouse effect uye kudzivirira kudzikiswa kwekushisa mukati mehusiku nemangwanani.
Kuna Fernandes, kunyangwe zvisingaite kuyera, zvinogona kutaurwa kuti moto munzvimbo yese yeBrazil yakabatsira neimwe nzira kune tembiricha yepamusoro inoonekwa, kunyanya muCentral-West Region.
Mazuva anopisa zvikuru munhoroondo muBrazil 5aa55
Gore rino, maguta akati wandei, kunyanya mudunhu reSão Paulo, akanyoreswa tembiricha yepamusoro munyaya dzavo. Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuNational Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Mitsetse (SP) yakanyoreswa 43,5ºC musi wa7 wemwedzi uno, ichipfuura 43ºC yakaonekwa muIguape muna 1933. Maererano neClimatempo, state of paulista had kupfuura mazuva gumi akatevedzana tembiricha dzakaenzana kana pamusoro pe 40 ° C.
Pakutanga, muna Gumiguru 2nd, guta guru reSão Paulo rakarova 37,4 ° C, yako yakanyanya kupisa muna 2020 uye yechipiri pakakwirira muInmet series, ki kwe37,8°C yakanyorwa muna Gumiguru 2014, iyo yakabatana nenguva yekusanaya kwemvura kusati kwamboitika. Mwedzi uno, 130 millimeters emvura yaitarisirwa uye chete 25 millimeters yakanyorwa, 19% yezvaitarisirwa.
Ibirité, guta guru reMinas Gerais, rakatamburawo nemafungu ekupisa gore rino. Guta rakanyoreswa 38,4ºC pana October 7, tembiricha inopisa zvikurusa munhau yayo. Kare pa 3rd, guta guru rakanga ratosvika 37,8ºC. O zuva rinopisa zvikuru yakatonyoreswa muBrazil yaive muPiauí, munaNovember 21, 2005, ine 44,7ºC.
Kuna Fernandes, zvakajairika kuti mafungu ekupisa aitike pakutanga kwechirimo, kunyanya munzvimbo dzeCentral-West neSoutheast, nekuda kwekuderera kwemwaka wemvura. Zvisinei, nyanzvi inosimbisa izvozvo Gore rino rakanga rakasiyana zvikuru, ine nzvimbo dzinoverengeka dzinotyora nhoroondo yepamusoro tembiricha marekodhi.
"Tichifunga kuti Nyika imhando yeinjini yekupisa inotsvaga mwero wekupisa nguva dzese, zviitiko zvakanyanyisa izvi zvinogona kutorwa senzira yekutsvaga kuenzanisa munguva yekudziya kwepasi kana shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, tichitarisa nhevedzano yezviitiko zvakaipisisa zvatakaita munyika. mumakore achangopfuura”
Anete Fernandes, meteorologist paINMET/5ºDISME (5th Meteorology Dunhu reNational Institute of Meteorology)
Maererano naSilvio Crestana, muongorori weBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), tiri kurarama munguva yekusagadzikana kukuru, ndicho chikonzero nei tichifanira kutanga kushanda tichifunga nezvezviitiko zvakasiyana uye chikonzero nemhedzisiro hukama. Nyanzvi inotenda kuti tichava nenyika iri kuwedzera mudambudziko, nekuparara kwehurongwa hwezvisikwa, uye inotaura kuti zvichave zvakafanira kuvaka kusimba mumasitimu aya, kutanga kuburikidza nekupona uye kudzidza kubva mumatambudziko uyezve kusvika pakukwanisa kujairana. mamiriro matsva.
"Tiri munguva yekupfupisa. Kunonoka uye kusagadzikana kwemvura, yakawedzerwa kumafungu ekupisa ayo akanga akasimba zvikuru gore rino uye zvimwe zviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze, zvinounza migumisiro yakajeka. Muchiitiko ichi, kusagadzirira kwakapararira kwevanhu kubata nezviitiko izvi, izvo zvingangoitika zvakare, kunoshamisa. "
Silvio Crestana, muongorori kuBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa)
Yakapisa Gunyana munhoroondo 1o301e
Masayendisiti kubva kuCopernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) yakaratidza mwedzi uno kuti Gunyana 2020 waive mwedzi unopisa zvakanyanya chakatorekodhwa pasi rose, uye gore rino richava rimwe ramashanu anopisa zvikuru munhoroondo. Rekodhi yapfuura yakaiswa munaGunyana 2019, iine 0,05 ° C yakaderera pane yakanyorwa gore rino.
Kusiyana nekuwedzera kwekushisa, masayendisiti anonyevera kuti Aizi yegungwa reArctic yakadonha kusvika kuchikamu chechipiri chakaderera pane zvinyorwa uye kufanotaura kuti, pakati pezana remakore, aizi yenharaunda yacho inogona kunyunguduka zvachose muzhizha.
Zvinogona kudaro 2020 inoha runyorwa rwemakore anopisa kwazvo yenguva dzese, nemukana unopfuura 98% wekuve muvashanu vepamusoro, sekureva kweNational Oceanic uye Atmospheric istration. 2019 raive gore rechipiri rinopisa munhoroondo, kupera makore gumi anopisa kwazvo munyika.
Kupisa kwepasirese, semaitiro, kunofanira kuramba kuchiwedzera gore negore. KuCrestana, zviitiko zvakanyanyisa zvinofanira kuramba zvichionekwa zvakanyanya, uye tichada kudzidza kurarama nekuchinja uku. Zvisinei, nyanzvi inoratidzira kuoma kwekuita yakakwana uye yakavharwa simba rekuenzanisa, inokwanisa kuratidza mutsauko pakati peiyo mwaranzi yakapinda uye yakasara munguva yakapiwa inotsanangura kuwedzera kwekushisa.
“Tiri kurarama munguva yakaoma, umo mune kusava nechokwadi, saka matambudziko achawanda. Kana isu tikashanda nehurongwa hwakaoma, vanokura, vanosvika kune imwe saizi uye kudonha. Izvi hazvifanire kushamisa, asi isu tinofanirwa kugadzirira mamiriro ezvinhu aya. "
Silvio Crestana, muongorori kuBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa)
Chitubu neLa Niña 342653
Kubva kutanga kwaSeptember, mvura dzeEastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean dzine tembiricha iri pasi peavhareji, hunhu hwechiitiko ichi. Musikana izvo, sezvakangoita El Niño (pamusoro pekudziya kwakajairika), inoshandura kunaya kwemvura uye maitiro etembiricha munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzepasi.
Crestana inosimbisa kuti kuvepo kweLa Niña gore rino kunogona kuve 80% inokonzera shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Mamiriro ekunze anoita kuti kunonoke uye kusamira zvakanaka mukunaya kwemvura, kuwedzera pakukonzera kusanaya kwemvura kuMaodzanyemba nekuunza homwe dzemvura kumatunhu ekuChamhembe nekuMaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva. La Niña inotarisirwa kuve pfupi gore rino, kupera muna Ndira.
Mazuva anotonhora zvakanyanya munhoroondo muBrazil 132t41
Mukuwedzera kune kupisa kwemhepo munaGunyana gore rino, Brazil yakatarisana nechando chakasimba munzvimbo dzakati wandei mumwedzi waNyamavhuvhu. In Urupema, mra Catarinense, tembiricha yakasvika -8,1 ° C pakati paChikunguru, iyo yakaderera yakanyorwa munyika gore rino.
MuSão Paulo, kutonhora kwakasvika kunyange muna August. Sekureva kweINMET, tembiricha yakaderera yakanyorwa muguta gore rino yaive 8,2ºC - muna Chivabvu, guta rakanga ratosvika 9,6ºC. Muna 2019, shoma yaive 7,2ºC uye muna 2016, 3,5ºC. Zvisinei, zuva raitonhora zvikuru munhoroondo yeSão Paulo rakanga riri 2 August 1955, ine mathermometer akanongedza -2,1ºC. Zvinoenderana nedata kubva INMET, iyo yakaderera tembiricha yakanyorwa muBrazil yaive -11,6 ° C, mukati Xanxerê, Santa Catarina, muna 1945.
Nzvimbo dzemumaguta nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze 6vt5o
Tembiricha yakanyanyisa inokanganisa nyika yese pasina musiyano, kubva kuchamhembe kusvika kumaodzanyemba, kubva kumabvazuva kusvika kumadokero. Nekudaro, matunhu akavharwa nezvinomera akabviswa, achifumura ivhu uye aine hunyoro hushoma kurwisa iyo yakananga mhedzisiro yekudziya kwemhepo, inowana kunyange yakakwirira tembiricha kukosha uye mhedzisiro yavo.
"Nzvimbo huru dzemumaguta dzine miti mishoma kana isina dzinonyanya kukanganiswa nekusavapo kwemhepo inotonhorera iyo miti inowanzopa"
Paulo Nobre, muongorori paINPE (National Institute for Space Research)
Kuna Denise Duarte, purofesa paFaculty of Architecture uye Urbanism paYunivhesiti yeSão Paulo (FAU/USP), kuwedzera kwekushisa mumaguta kunogona kuitika zvose nekuda kwezvinhu zvepasi rose - izvo zvinokanganisa nyika yose - uye semugumisiro wezviitiko. inokonzerwa nekugara kwemaguta, semafungu ekupisa - chiitiko chechisikigo, icho chinowedzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pasi rose.
“Patinotaura nezvekupisa kwemaguta, tine muenzaniso wakajeka wezviri kuitika iye zvino. Nekuda kwekupisa kwakanyanya, vanhu vanoshandisa mhepo yakawandisa, kuburitsa magasi egreenhouse uye kukanda mweya unopisa kunze, izvo zvinoita kuti maguta atonyanya kupisa. Uku kutenderera kwakashata”
Denise Duarte, purofesa paFaculty of Architecture uye Urbanism paYunivhesiti yeSão Paulo (FAU USP)
Mazano ane maguta ekudzikamisa mamiriro ezvinhu uye kugadzirisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze ndeekuvandudza kutaridzika uye kudzivirira kwezuva kwezvivakwa, kushandisa zvinhu zvakakodzera kune yega yega zano, mukuwedzera mukudyara mukuwedzera nzvimbo dzegirinhi dzemaguta, semapaki nenzvimbo.
Duarte anoratidza kuti kutsiva huni nemasango nemadziro akasvibira, ayo ari kuita mukurumbira mumaguta akati wandei, kusanganisira São Paulo, haisi mhinduro chaiyo. Maererano nepurofesa, masvingo akasvibirira anofanira kushanda sekuwedzera, mupiro wekuwedzera, sezvo pasina nzira yekuishandisa senzira yekubhadhara zvakatipoteredza.
Zvekuita kuderedza kudziya kwepasi 25221t
Pane zviito zvakati kuti zvinogona uye zvinofanirwa kutorwa kudzosera kumashure, kana kudzikisa, chiitiko ichi chekuchinja kwakanyanya kwemamiriro ekunze. KuNobre, danho rekutanga uye rekukurumidzira harisi rekungodzosera mitengo yazvino yekutema miti muBrazil kune mitengo yezvekudyara masango, asiwo kudzoreredza mafuro akashatiswa uye kuchengetedza masango emurwizi nemimango.
Zvadaro, anodaro muongorori, iyo yenyika simba matrix inofanirwa kushandurwa kuita 100% yemagetsi matrix anobva kuzuva, mhepo uye hydraulic zvizvarwa, zvichitevera muenzaniso wezviri kutoitwa nedzimwe nyika. Chekupedzisira, asi chinonyanya kukosha, tichifunga kuti nyaya yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze inongova bazi rimwe chete redambudziko revanhu ratiri kuona pasi rose, zviwanikwa uye zvinoenderera mberi zviwanikwa uye kuedza kunofanirwa kushandiswa kudzidzo yezvakatipoteredza yevana vedu nevechiri kuyaruka.
Crestana inotendawo munhanho-nhanho nhatu. Nhanho yekutanga yenyanzvi ndeyekuvandudza ongororo uye kuongororwa kunoitwa kuitira kuti tinzwisise zviri nani hukama pakati pePasi system nekudziya kwepasirese.
Danho rechipiri nderokudzikisa mhedzisiro. Kana tichiziva kuti kupisa kwepasi kunogadzirwa, zvishoma muchikamu, nemhepo inopisa gasi, tinoda kuvandudza mabasa ekurima uye maindasitiri, pamwe chete nemhando dzehupfumi, izvo zvinobvumira bioeconomy uye hupfumi hunotenderera. Kune nyanzvi, danho rekupedzisira nderekudzivisa, kubva pakubuda kwemagasi egreenhouse kusvika pakuparadzwa kwezvipenyu zvakasiyana-siyana.
"Neiyi nzira nyowani yekurarama nekusimudzira budiriro, hatifanire kungofunga nezveGDP yenyika, asiwo masevhisi ezvakatipoteredza uye ecosystem. Ko sango rine basa rei? Sango rakatemwa rinokosha kudarika sango rakamira here? Nhasi zvave kudai"
Silvio Crestana, muongorori kuBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa)
Source: Climate, INMET, Basa rekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, Deposit Photos
