The 2m2k3r
Makore makumi maviri asinganzwisisike apfuura, musoro mukuru wakaita misoro pasi rose waive umwe: El Niño. Mhedzisiro yepesvedzero yevanhu paChisikwa uye kuti yakauya sei pakukuvadza mamiriro ekunze epasi redu, uye sei El Niño yakava mugumisiro wakananga wazvo. 5b1g5s
Kunzwisisa zvinoreva zita rekuti El Niño 4c334j
El Niño Icho chiitiko chine mhedzisiro papasi, yakasanganiswa nekuramba ichiwedzera kuburitsa kwezvinosvibisa, inoparadza, inowedzera tembiricha yepasirese. Nyanzvi dzakapa zita rakanaka kune yakaipa mhedzisiro pasi rose, uye yakave yakakurumbira pakati pevezvenhau kurishandisa sezwi rakajairwa kune zvese zvakaipa zviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zvakaitika pasi rese. Nekudaro, matambudziko aya haana kugara achiitika nekuda kwe "mukomana" chete uye, zvishoma nezvishoma, El Niño Yakamira kuva nyaya inodzokororwa.
Zvekuti mazuvano, vazhinji havazivi revo yechokwadi yezita iri, kunyangwe kuvepo kwaro kuchiri kushanda zvakanyanya mukuenzanisa kwehupenyu hwepasi. Uye izvozvo zvava kuda kuchinja, sezvo mamiriro ezvinhu ari kuramba achiwedzera kuipa. Mukati megore, tembiricha yepasi rose inofungidzirwa kuti ingapfuura chiitiko chenhoroondo: kuwedzera kunosvika 1,5 degrees Celsius, maererano ne WMO, World Meteorological Organisation, sangano reUnited Nations rinoona nezvemamiriro ekunze, mugwaro raburitswa nhasi.
Kukuvadzwa kwepasi hakugadzirisiki 56xh
Uye mashoko akaipa haagumiri ipapo. Katsika kekuti kupisa kurambe kuchikwira zvakanyanya, zvichikwidza tembiricha yepasi rose, iyo yatove pamusoro pezvinotarisirwa. Kunyangwe zhizha rinopisa rakatimirira, tisingarevi nezvekukurumidza kunyunguduka kwemaaizi echando, izvo zvinoita kuti mvura ikwire, uye nekudaro mafambiro emvura pamakondinendi, achidzima kubva munzvimbo dzemepu dziri pedyo nemhenderekedzo yegungwa. kutambura nekuwedzera mukufambira mberi kwemakungwa.
Kukwira kwekushisa kwepasi rose kunokonzerwa nekutadza kwevanhu kuisa simba pamusoro pekuburitswa kwemagasi anosvibisa mumhepo, izvo pamwe chete nemamiriro ekunze asina kunaka akaunzwa nemhepo. El Niño, ichaita kuti pasi, iro rakanga risiri kuita zvakanaka, riite kuti upenyu hwedu pano huwedzere kuipa.
[Pasina kuchinja kukuru] tembiricha yepasi rose ichasundwa kusvika pakakwirira zvisati zvamboitika, uye izvi zvichava nemigumisiro yakakura [uye inotyisa] kana toreva nezveutano, kuchengetedzwa kwezvokudya, migove yemvura, uye, chokwadika, mhoteredzo. Tinofanira kugadzirira.
Petteri Taalas, Munyori Mukuru weWorld Meteorological Organisation
Chirevo chakaburitswa pamwe chete nekutaura kwaTaalas chinoti pane mukana we98% wekuti rimwe remakore mashanu anotevera richave rimwe reanopisa akanyorwa munhoroondo yepasi. Uye kune zvakare mukana mumwechete wekuti rimwe remakore aya richava neavhareji yepamusoro tembiricha zvachose. Ungafungidzira here izvi zvichiitika? Hongu, zvinogona, zvichipihwa kuti makore masere apfuura akatoratidza kuve anopisa zvakanyanya, maererano neshumo yapfuura na. WMO, rakabudiswa muna January. Kupisa kwakadaro kwakaunza kukuvadzwa kusingagadzirisiki kuPasi, izvo zvinosuruvarisa kuti zvinongove tarisiro yenjodzi yepuraneti iri kuuya, uye inova isingagone kudzivirira zuva rega rega.
Nyika inochemera kubatsirwa, tinofanira kungoteerera 2x5620
Uye dambudziko iri harinyare kuratidza mhedzisiro yaro zvakajeka uye nenzwi rakanakisa, isu tisu tinovhara maziso edu nenzeve. MuNorth America, semuenzaniso, tembiricha yakanyanyisa yakaita kuti migwagwa iparare, uye kwave kune kuwedzera kunoshamisa kwekushanya kuzvipatara nemasangano ehutano hweveruzhinji nekuda kwezvirwere zvine chekuita nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. China yakatambura nguva yayo yakareba yekupisa kwakanyanya, nemazuva anopfuura makumi manomwe akateedzana achirekodha tembiricha zviri pamusoro peavhareji, tembiricha yepamusoro yati yamboonekwa pasirese, sezvakataurwa nemunyori wezvemamiriro ekunze Maximiliano Herrera.
Sekureva kwevanoongorora, dai pasina kukanganiswa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, pangadai pasina kumbokwira tembiricha yakakura sezvakaitika gore rapfuura kuUnited Kingdom, apo dunhu iro rine mamiriro ekunze ari pakati nepakati uye kuine makore, kwakawedzera kupisa. , kusvika kusingaenzaniswi madhigirii 40. Celsius. Izvi zvakaitika kunyangwe inonzi "triple effect" ye Musikana, mamiriro ekunze akasiyana neayo El Niño, ndiko kuti, kutonhora kwepasirese, pakati paGunyana 2020 naKurume gore rino.
Panguva ino, pasina kana wavo, kana El Niño ou Musikana, parizvino inoshanda, mhepo dzekutengesa (kubva kuChirungu, trade winds) - sekudanwa kunonzi mhepo inogara ichiyerera kubva kumabvazuva ichienda kumadokero kwepasi, ichibva kuEquator - inotakurwa kubva kuPacific Ocean, inobatsira kuunza mvura kumadokero, kubva kuSouth America ichienda kuAsia. Somugumisiro, mvura inotonhora inokwira kubva pakadzika kusvika pamusoro pegungwa.
Nekufurira kwe El Niño, mhepo idzi dzinopera simba, zvichiita kuti mvura inodziya iyerere ichidzokera kunharaunda dziri kumabvazuva. Somugumisiro, mvura inopisa inosundira Pacific jet stream, mhepo inomhanya zvikuru, yakananga kumaodzanyemba, iyo, inokwanawo kukanganisa mamiriro ekunze epasi rose. Mukomana mukuru ari kutarisirwa kuuya pakati paChivabvu naChikunguru gore rino, uye fungidziro dzinopa kusvika kupera kwechando kuchamhembe kwehemisphere kuti ipere, pakati paZvita 2023 naKurume 2024, inodaro National Weather Forecast Service Center yeUnited. States, ivo National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
A WMO inoyambira kuti zvinogona kutora gore kuti mhedzisiro ye El Niño zvinonzwika mukupisa kutenderera pasirese, izvo zvisiri nhau dzakanaka dzekuuya kwa2024. Uye kufanotaura kusina tariro hakugumiri ipapo: mhedzisiro yechiitiko inofungidzirwa kupisa pasi zvakanyanya, kunyangwe kuvepo kwekupesana kwayo, Musikana.
Izvo chete zvichave zvakakwana kukanda bhora kumusoro pane thermometer yepasi. Sangano iri rinogadzira mukana we66% wekuti pakati pa2023 na2027, rinosvika gore rimwe chete richanyora kuwedzera kukuru kupfuura 1,5 madhigirii Celsius mukupisa kwepasi, zvichienzaniswa nekukwira isati yatanga maindasitiri. Iyi yaive nguva apo paive nekutanga kwekushandiswa kwemafuta akakwana efossil kutanga iyo Greenhouse effect, kutanga kwekudziya kwepasi.
Asi pachine mukana, zvisinei kuti uri kure 4y65f
Hapana nzira yekutapira piritsi, zvinhu zvichanyanya kushata. Kukwira uku kuri kunetsa, sezvo nyika yatotambura zvisingaite nekuwedzera kwe1,1 degrees Celsius pamusoro peiyo yakayerwa nguva isati yasvika, izvo zvinokwana kukonzera mhirizhonga yemamiriro ekunze yatinoona zuva nezuva pasi rose. Sezvingave zvakaoma sezvazvingaite, zvichipihwa iyi nhau inoshungurudza zvakanyanya, pachine mukana, kunyangwe ungave mudiki, wekuti udzikamise kuwedzera uku kwekushisa kusati kwasvika 1,5 degrees.
Donzvo guru nderekuti zvibvumirano zvemamiriro ekunze pasi rose zvakaita sechiri kuParis chenjedze nyika dzepasi rose kuti dziise mabhureki kuitira kudzivirira kuwanda kwepamusoro uku. Neizvi, tariro ndeyokuti kuchave nekuziva kukuru kwekubuda kwetsvina uye kuti kutonga uku kuchava basa rinogara riripo uye kwete kungoita emergency uye nemusoro "stopgap". (https://www.spinabifida.net/) Zvirinani ndiko kubudirira kwakaita Secretary General Taalas we WMO chinangwa chokukunda.
Sezvineiwo, basa iri riri kuramba richinetsa kuita. Muna 2015, semuenzaniso, gore iro chibvumirano cheParis chakanyanya kusimbiswa pakati pemasimba enyika, akavimbisa pamwe chete kuderedza kubuda kwavo - uye izvo zvinenge zvisina kuzadzisa, nenzira - hazvina kumbofungidzirwa kuti kuwedzera kwekushisa kwepasi rose. inogona kudarika 1,5 degrees Celsius. Hatisi kutaura nezvemakumi maviri kana matatu emakore apfuura, asi makore mashoma apfuura. Saka chii chinogona kutarisirwa 2025, kana 2024, chero pasina chinochinja zvakanyanya?
Ichi chinyorwa chinogona kuita sepfupiso yefirimu renjodzi yaRoland Emmerich, kana kabhuku kesainzi kasingadhure, asi handizvo. Migumisiro inokonzerwa nekukuvadza kunokonzerwa nevanhu iri kuonekwa nekukurumidza kunotyisa, uye kusvikira pane shanduko huru yemafungiro kune munhu wese, mukubatana, kuchinja mararamiro enhoroondo iyi. Zviri kwatiri isu, sevagari vepasirese, kuda kubva kuhurumende dzedu shanduko yakasimba mumitemo yemamiriro ekunze uye, hongu, kutora matanho, kunyangwe zvidiki sei, kushandura isu pachedu kuziva, izvo zvatinodya uye nemabatiro atinoita. zviite. Zvinenge zvavimbiswa kuti hatizofariri zvakatemerwa kuti zviitike kumusha wedu, Pasi, munguva pfupi iri kuuya.
Kune dzimwe nhau pamusoro peizvi nemamwe mapuraneti, ramba wakatarira Showmetech:
Nzvimbo yekunze inotangira papi uye inotsanangurwa sei?
Source: The Guardian, vava kuda, The Weather Channel
Yakaongororwa na Glaucon Vital musi wa17/5/23.
